Can Vikings Still Make Playoffs

4/13/2022

A couple of years ago, then-Texas defensive coordinator Will Muschamp was asked about the statistical progress his defense had made. 'I've said this before -- stats are for losers,' said Muschamp. Most stats are just an after-the-fact way to explain outcomes, he explained. They can misplace both credit and blame. And he's right; you have to consider all variables. And while numbers alone say there's no way the Minnesota Vikings should be 0-3 right now, the tape isn't far behind. It just depends which half of the game you're watching.

The Vikings entered the 2020 season with high hopes, believing that they could reload their roster on the fly and make consecutive trips to the postseason for the first time in the Mike Zimmer era. Yet the Colts still need help. Of the five 10-5 teams, the Colts are the only one for whom a win does not guarantee a postseason berth. How the Minnesota Vikings Can Make the 2020 N.F.L. How the Minnesota Vikings can still make the playoffs Believe it or not, the Minnesota Vikings are not out of the playoff hunt yet. The Minnesota Vikings had a chance to set their mark as a team on. The Vikings have a 4% chance, but strangely the Bears have a 6% chance.” Not all that strange. Ignoring the fact that Chicago is 1/2 game up on the Vikes, they also have both games against the Pack still outstanding.

The Vikings may be, over a three-game stretch, the weirdest team in NFL history. That's because they may be the best 0-3 team in NFL history. Better than the 1992 San Diego Chargers, who started 0-4, went 11-1 from then on and cracked the playoffs, or the absurd 1995 Detroit Lions, who started 0-3, climbed to 3-3, dropped to 3-6, then won out to make the playoffs. Only five teams since the merger have started 0-3 and made the playoffs, but the Vikings could be No. 6. Here's why:

Everything we know about football says the Vikings should be 3-0. In the first half of games so far, they've outscored teams a combined 54-7. Don't just dismiss this as some random stat: 'But it's a 60-minute game!' It's not. At least not when you've been this good early in games. In NFL history, six other teams have outscored the opposition like this to start the first three games (over 50 points, allowed 7 or fewer). Those teams went a combined 18-0.. The Vikings have posted an almost impossible 0-3 mark.

And this is where Vikings fans may want to reach for the motion sickness bag in the seatback pocket. According to ESPN Stats & Info, the chances of the Vikings losing all three games is at about 3,800-to-1. The weakest win probability they've had at halftime is a 17-7 lead over San Diego -- and it was still 84.9 percent. Up 20-0 at halftime of the Detroit game, they were at 97.1 percent.

So that's the pain, what are the solutions? How can the Vikings, a team dominating into the locker room, maintain form into the second half and not continue to be outscored at a rate of 64-6 (the current ratio through three games)? Here are key issues on both sides of the ball:

Offense

Can Vikings Still Make The Playoffs

Minnesota is blessed with the league's best running back, but Adrian Peterson has been terrible in the second half, where he's run for just over a quarter of his 296 total yards. That's an amazing stat, actually. In recent years we've learned that a lot of rushing totals are piled up late. You pass to gain leads, you run to hold onto them. But the Vikings have grown frustrated rushing the ball with the lead, and have gone away from Peterson too often.

Consider the Detroit loss. Minnesota went into the third quarter with a 20-0 lead. During that quarter, they ran the ball twice and threw the ball seven times. Four of Donovan McNabb's throws fell incomplete, stopping the clock, and one ended in a sack. By the time the quarter was over, the lead was 20-10, and Detroit was driving. To be fair, the tape shows that in the second half of games, teams are loading up to stop the run, begging McNabb to throw. But even then, Minnesota is being stubborn. Peterson cracked off a 43-yard run in the first quarter against an attacking, stacked front. And he faces stacked fronts in every quarter -- he's the league's best back. Putting aside the idea of keeping the clock moving, in some ways, Peterson becomes more dangerous against loaded fronts and blitzes. If he finds a seam, he could be gone.

The biggest issue: Minnesota is last in the league in second-half time of possession. How is that possible? The team is going into the locker room with a 16-point lead on average, and getting out-possessed 2-to-1 while the opponent scrambles to catch up.

Can The Vikings Make Playoffs

Bottom line: if you're going to be stubborn with a running back, why not be with Peterson?

Could The Vikings Make The Playoffs

Defense

As pal Bill Barnwell pointed out, the pass rush has shifted from half to half. The Vikings have sacked opposing quarterbacks on 10.3 percent of first-half dropbacks, an elite figure, but have sacks on just three of their 75 second-half dropbacks, a disastrous 4 percent rate. It's the equivalent of going from the league's best pass-rush to the worst in the course of 15 minutes. The result is that the Vikings are giving up a league-high 21.3 points in the second half.

A look at the tape, however, shows that it may not just be the rush. In the Detroit game, Matthew Stafford worked exclusively out of the shotgun in the second half, baiting the pass rush. It worked, because it wasn't a lack of rush that killed Minnesota, but a lack of dropping back. As Minnesota came after Stafford, he abused them with shorter passes -- tight end Brandon Pettigrew, running back Jahvid Best and slot receiver Titus Young caught 13 second-half passes, compared to six total from Calvin Johnson and Nate Burleson.

Detroit didn't simply flick on the Megatron, they used their share of the clock and picked Minnesota apart out of a shotgun and short drops.

So far this season the Vikings have been the ultimate in mixed signals. They've prepared for games like NASA scientists, but can't even assemble a white board for the 15-minute time where adjustments are needed.

On both sides of the ball, the Vikings seem to be falling into the trap of maintaining aggression when merely playing sound football would do. It can hardly be called 'winding the clock' when the hand-offs are going to Peterson, and you can drop your linebackers when the D-line features Kevin Williams and Jared Allen.

Over the next four weeks, the Vikings get Kansas City, Arizona and Carolina, three games they can win. An upset of Green Bay could put them on the path to rival those other 'great' 0-3 teams. No shot? Tell that to the team that was drilling undefeated Detroit just last week.

Stats may be for losers. But for the Vikings, it's really only half the story.